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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260127T100000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260127T111500
DTSTAMP:20260411T110933
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SUMMARY:The World is Not Flat: Persistence in the Hierarchy of Economic Complexity Across a Century
DESCRIPTION:Academic Research Seminars\n\n\nIn this Academic Research Seminar\, Gregor Semieniuk will discuss his paper “The World is Not Flat: Persistence in the Hierarchy of Economic Complexity Across a Century.” \n\n\n\nSpeaker: Gregor Semieniuk\, Associate Professor in the School of Public Policy and Department of Economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. \n\n\n\nThe speaker will be online but a viewing will be held in the Perkins Room (R-429). Room attendance is permitted for the Harvard community\, the Zoom session is open to the public. Whether attending in person or virtually\, please register  in advance. \n\n\n\nAuthors: Isabella M. Weber\, Gregor Semieniuk\, Junshang Liang\, Tom Westland \n\n\n\nPaper Abstract: To explain long-run cross-country differences in income\, most studies focus on persistent non-economic factors as drivers such as culture\, institutions and geography. In this paper\, we examine a more distinctly economic explanation: persistence in countries’ economic complexity. We construct a new global commodity-level export dataset from the peak of the ‘First Globalization’ prior to the First World War to analyze economic complexity across the first and the current waves of globalization. We show that economic complexity is highly persistent\, and a powerful predictor of national income across the world today even when controlling for historical institutions\, colonial status\, geography and when considering alternative measures of complexity. We exploit the switch from sailing to steamboat transport\, which had heterogenous effects on global trading costs to argue that the persistence is not driven by omitted variables. We further confirm the plausibility of persistence by explicitly testing the transmission mechanism of path-dependence in capabilities\, showing that when countries moved into new export lines\, they were more likely to move into products that were proximate to ones they already exported. \n\n\n\nSpeaker Bio: Gregor Semieniuk is an Associate Professor in the School of Public Policy and Department of Economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. His research focuses on structural change and economic development in the context of climate change and its mitigation\, and he often studies these problems through the lens of economic inequality. Gregor’s work has been published in 24 peer-reviewed articles including multiple times in Nature Climate Change and Nature Energy\, and four of them are among the top 1% cited in their field according to Web of Science. Gregor’s work is often mentioned in the media\, including the Financial Times\, Guardian\, Bloomberg and the Economist\, and he has advised international organizations and testified before the Senate’s Committee on the Budget. From 2023 to 2025\, Gregor worked as a Senior Climate Change Economist on staff at the World Bank\, providing technical leadership on decarbonization strategies and industrial policy for clean tech investments with a focus on Eastern Europe. Before joining UMass Amherst\, Gregor was a Lecturer (the UK’s assistant professor) in Economics at SOAS University of London. \n\n\n\nThe Growth Lab’s Research Seminar series is a weekly seminar that brings together researchers from across the academic spectrum who share an interest in growth and development. \n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n  Share
URL:https://growthlab.hks.harvard.edu/event/the-world-is-not-flat-persistence-in-the-hierarchy-of-economic-complexity-across-a-century-2/
CATEGORIES:Academic Research Seminars,Hybrid
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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260203T100000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260203T111500
DTSTAMP:20260411T110933
CREATED:20260121T174956Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260126T154913Z
UID:17424-1770112800-1770117300@growthlab.hks.harvard.edu
SUMMARY:Global Science Sustains U.S. Innovation
DESCRIPTION:Academic Research Seminars\n\n\nIn this Academic Research Seminar\, Chris Ross Esposito uncovers the structure of the U.S. knowledge supply chain by tracing multi-generational citation paths that connect NSF-funded research to downstream patents\, and assess its fragility by simulating barriers that impede the flow of scientific knowledge across the U.S. border. \n\n\n\nSpeaker: Christopher Ross Esposito\, Osborne Postdoctoral Fellow in the Strategy Unit at UCLA’s Anderson School of Management \n\n\n\nThe speaker will be online but a viewing will be held in the Perkins Room (R-429). Room attendance is permitted for the Harvard community\, the Zoom session is open to the public. Whether attending in person or virtually\, please register in advance.  \n\n\n\nPaper Abstract: Like physical products\, new technologies are developed using globally sourced inputs. But while the supply chains behind physical goods are well understood\, we know far less about the international ”supply chain” of scientific knowledge that powers U.S. innovation—and how vulnerable it may be to disruption. Here\, I uncover the structure of the U.S. knowledge supply chain by tracing multi-generational citation paths that connect NSF-funded research to downstream patents\, and assess its fragility by simulating barriers that impede the flow of scientific knowledge across the U.S. border. The results reveal that U.S. innovation is deeply reliant on foreign science: 56% of the intermediary papers linking NSF research to patents are produced outside the United States. Cross-border restrictions reduce the connectivity of these paths\, increase their length\, and lower innovation productivity\, as measured by the U.S. patent-to-publication ratio. Most consequentially\, such restrictions strand promising knowledge trajectories outside the U.S.: I estimate there are 104\,149 NSF-stimulated paths currently under development outside the U.S. Under the status quo\, 67\,965 are projected to return to the U.S. for patenting. However\, under scientific autarky\, virtually none would\, representing a loss of approximately $10.7 billion in invested capital. These impacts also affect U.S. firms that are critical to national priorities\, including innovation\, energy\, and security. For example\, autarky reduces outstanding path capture at Microsoft\, ExxonMobil\, and Lockheed Martin by between 48% and 57%. \n\n\n\nSpeaker Bio: Chris Ross Esposito is the Osborne Postdoctoral Fellow in the Strategy Unit at UCLA’s Anderson School of Management\, where he is also associated with the Price Center for Entrepreneurship and Innovation. Previously\, he was a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Chicago and completed a PhD at UCLA in Geography. Chris uses computational and econometric methods to examine key issues in scientific and technological innovation\, including the global dynamics and geopolitical consequences of China’s expanding leadership in science\, the drivers of the innovative capacities of cities\, and the effects of knowledge obsolescence on the organization of the innovation economy. While grounded in theoretical inquiry\, his research generates critical insights for organizational innovation strategy and public policy at the national and metropolitan levels. \n\n\n\nThe Growth Lab’s Research Seminar series is a weekly seminar that brings together researchers from across the academic spectrum who share an interest in growth and development.  \n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n  Share
URL:https://growthlab.hks.harvard.edu/event/global-science-sustains-u-s-innovation/
LOCATION:Perkins Room (R-429)
CATEGORIES:Academic Research Seminars,Hybrid
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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260210T100000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260210T111500
DTSTAMP:20260411T110933
CREATED:20260206T165042Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260206T165338Z
UID:17527-1770717600-1770722100@growthlab.hks.harvard.edu
SUMMARY:Beyond One-Size-Fits-All: Targeting Place-Based Policies for Canada's Low-Carbon Transformation
DESCRIPTION:Academic Research Seminars\n\n\nIn this Academic Research Seminar\, Jacob Greenspon will present his paper “Beyond One-Size-Fits-All: Targeting Place-Based Policies for Canada’s Low-Carbon Transformation.” \n\n\n\nSpeaker: Jacob Greenspon\, Doctoral candidate in Economics\, University of Oxford and Research Manager\, HKS Reimagining the Economy Project \n\n\n\nWhether attending in person or virtually\, please register in advance. \n\n\n\nPaper Abstract: Negative labour demand shocks are often regionally concentrated. Policies that address their impacts are most effective and efficient when tailored to local circumstances. Using newly- assembled data on Canadian communities’ economic challenges and opportunities\, I analyze place-based policy targeting in response to workforce disruptions from GHG reductions. I first motivate and outline the goals of policies that aim to address local labour demand shocks. I next characterize the Canadian communities with workforces susceptible to GHG reduction efforts. I then analyze the suitability in each community of three broad policy responses based on regional characteristics and insights from prior literature. First\, to guide provision of income supports for early retirees\, I document large differences in the age profiles of susceptible local workforces. Second\, I argue retraining programs are most suitable for susceptible workers that have strong job transition opportunities and\, based on a newly-developed measure\, estimate substantial variation in the proportion of these workers across susceptible communities. Third\, I analyze nine domains related to challenges and opportunities for local job creation: high-speed broadband access; physical infrastructure; small business services and financing; higher-education attainment; childcare and housing availability; renewable energy generation; critical minerals production; and publicly-funded research. I assess the relative priority of interventions in each domain and identify four clusters of susceptible communities with similar priorities. I conclude with a discussion of how these results can be incorporated into collaborative federal and local policymaking processes. \n\n\n\nThe Growth Lab’s Research Seminar series is a weekly seminar that brings together researchers from across the academic spectrum who share an interest in growth and development. \n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n  Share
URL:https://growthlab.hks.harvard.edu/event/beyond-one-size-fits-all-targeting-place-based-policies-for-canadas-low-carbon-transformation/
LOCATION:Perkins Room – R-429 Rubenstein 4th floor
CATEGORIES:Academic Research Seminars,Hybrid
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DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20260414T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20260414T130000
DTSTAMP:20260411T110933
CREATED:20260407T172254Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260408T144425Z
UID:17672-1776168000-1776171600@growthlab.hks.harvard.edu
SUMMARY:Training in the Age of AI: A Theory of Career Viability
DESCRIPTION:Academic Research Seminars\n\n\nIn this Academic Research Seminar\, Luis Garicano will present his paper “Training in the Age of AI: A Theory of Career Viability.” \n\n\n\nSpeaker: Luis Garicano\, Professor of Public Policy\, London School of Economics \n\n\n\nAuthors: Luis Garicano & Luis Rayo \n\n\n\nPaper Abstract: Across the economy\, juniors pay for training by doing menial tasks. Al now performs an increasing share of that work\, putting the bargain at risk. We introduce Al into a dynamic career model with an automation threshold and possible complementarity for experts. The expertise leverage ratio\, measuring the output of a fully-trained graduate relative to that of a novice who has just enough knowledge to outperform Al\, governs the overall impact of the technology. Our central result is that careers are guaranteed viable\, in the sense that they are at least as profitable as they were before the arrival of Al\, when this ratio is above a critical threshold\, specifically Euler’s number e; in this case\, training has a fixed duration and the training path is not at risk. Below the threshold\, the senior’s sale-able knowledge shrinks and training compresses; in this case\, advances in Al threaten wholesale career collapse. \n\n\n\nWhether attending in person or virtually\, please register in advance. \n\n\n\nThe Growth Lab’s Research Seminar series is a weekly seminar that brings together researchers from across the academic spectrum who share an interest in growth and development. \n\n\n\n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n  Share
URL:https://growthlab.hks.harvard.edu/event/training-in-the-age-of-ai-a-theory-of-career-viability/
CATEGORIES:Academic Research Seminars,Hybrid
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