Date:
Location:
Speakers: João Romero and Gustavo Britto, Professors at the Department of Economics at Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)
Location: HYBRID L-324 FAINSOD, HKS / Zoom
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Paper Abstract.
Following the increasing upsurge in the works that use economic complexity indicators (ECI) to devise smart diversification strategies, this paper proposes a new method - Smart Diversification Score (SDS) - to be used by policymakers to rank promising activities for short, medium and long-term diversification. After reporting the positive impact of regional complexity, calculated using employment data, on employment and GDP per capita growth for Brazilian regions, the paper assesses the potential of SDS to increase ECI in the municipal level. Looking backwards (to data from 2007 and 2018), the paper finds that SDS can predict up to 39.4% of the diversification activities that happened in 1033 Brazilian cities that have increased their complexity. Looking forward, the paper calculates the SDS for the city of Belo Horizonte, suggesting a balanced portfolio of related and unrelated activities for diversification and estimates the potential gains to be obtained following different development paths. The main contribution of this paper is to conceive of a new method, test its validity in the municipal level and exemplify its use for policy purposes.
Gustavo Britto is a full-time professor at the Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG). Awarded a PhD degree in Regional Growth, Land Economy Department from the University of Cambridge in 2008. Vice-Director at the Center for Development and Regional Planning (Cedeplar-UFMG) (2018-2023), Editor of Nova Economia Journal (2018-2023), and a member of the board of Graduate Studies of the Postgraduate Programme in Economics at Cedeplar-UFMG (2014-2023). Researcher at the Center for Development and Regional Planning (Cedeplar). His main investigation theme is the multidimensional relationship between structural change and economic development over time and across the territory. Research results can be found in journals such as the Cambridge Journal of Economics, Metroeconomica, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Scientometrics, Journal of Cleaner Production, Journal Post Keynesian Economics, Journal of Political Economy, PSL Quarterly Review, and Cepal Review, among others. General Coordinator of the DataViva project. Currently working as a visiting scholar at SOAS (University of London).
João Romero is a full-time professor at the Department of Economics at Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG). PhD in Applied Economics from the University of Cambridge (2015), his PhD thesis was awarded the BRICS Economic Research Award in 2016, promoted by the Exim Bank of India. He was also twice winner of the Brazilian National Confederation of Industry Award, in 2009 and 2015. He was Assistant Editor of Nova Economia Journal between 2018 and 2023. He is currently the coordinator of the International Economic Relations undergraduate course at UFMG. He is a member of the Cambridge Center for Economic and Public Policy (CCEPP), coordinator of the Research Group on Public Policies and Development (GPPD), at the Center for Regional Development and Planning (Cedeplar), and Research Coordinator of the DataViva project. His research is focused on the areas of economic complexity, regional development, international trade, and economic growth. He has published in journals such as World Development, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Cambridge Journal of Economics, Metroeconomica, Journal of Political Economy and Cepal Review, among others.