Global Science Sustains U.S. Innovation

In this Academic Research Seminar, Chris Ross Esposito uncovers the structure of the U.S. knowledge supply chain by tracing multi-generational citation paths that connect NSF-funded research to downstream patents, and assess its fragility by simulating barriers that impede the flow of scientific knowledge across the U.S. border.

Speaker: Christopher Ross Esposito, Osborne Postdoctoral Fellow in the Strategy Unit at UCLA’s Anderson School of Management

The speaker will be online but a viewing will be held in the Perkins Room (R-429). Room attendance is permitted for the Harvard community, the Zoom session is open to the public. Whether attending in person or virtually, please register in advance.

Paper Abstract: Like physical products, new technologies are developed using globally sourced inputs. But while the supply chains behind physical goods are well understood, we know far less about the international ”supply chain” of scientific knowledge that powers U.S. innovation—and how vulnerable it may be to disruption. Here, I uncover the structure of the U.S. knowledge supply chain by tracing multi-generational citation paths that connect NSF-funded research to downstream patents, and assess its fragility by simulating barriers that impede the flow of scientific knowledge across the U.S. border. The results reveal that U.S. innovation is deeply reliant on foreign science: 56% of the intermediary papers linking NSF research to patents are produced outside the United States. Cross-border restrictions reduce the connectivity of these paths, increase their length, and lower innovation productivity, as measured by the U.S. patent-to-publication ratio. Most consequentially, such restrictions strand promising knowledge trajectories outside the U.S.: I estimate there are 104,149 NSF-stimulated paths currently under development outside the U.S. Under the status quo, 67,965 are projected to return to the U.S. for patenting. However, under scientific autarky, virtually none would, representing a loss of approximately $10.7 billion in invested capital. These impacts also affect U.S. firms that are critical to national priorities, including innovation, energy, and security. For example, autarky reduces outstanding path capture at Microsoft, ExxonMobil, and Lockheed Martin by between 48% and 57%.

Speaker Bio: Chris Ross Esposito is the Osborne Postdoctoral Fellow in the Strategy Unit at UCLA’s Anderson School of Management, where he is also associated with the Price Center for Entrepreneurship and Innovation. Previously, he was a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Chicago and completed a PhD at UCLA in Geography. Chris uses computational and econometric methods to examine key issues in scientific and technological innovation, including the global dynamics and geopolitical consequences of China’s expanding leadership in science, the drivers of the innovative capacities of cities, and the effects of knowledge obsolescence on the organization of the innovation economy. While grounded in theoretical inquiry, his research generates critical insights for organizational innovation strategy and public policy at the national and metropolitan levels.

The Growth Lab’s Research Seminar series is a weekly seminar that brings together researchers from across the academic spectrum who share an interest in growth and development.