Training in the Age of AI: A Theory of Career Viability

In this Academic Research Seminar, Luis Garicano will present his paper “Training in the Age of AI: A Theory of Career Viability.”

Speaker: Luis Garicano, Professor of Public Policy, London School of Economics

Authors: Luis Garicano & Luis Rayo

Paper Abstract: Across the economy, juniors pay for training by doing menial tasks. Al now performs an increasing share of that work, putting the bargain at risk. We introduce Al into a dynamic career model with an automation threshold and possible complementarity for experts. The expertise leverage ratio, measuring the output of a fully-trained graduate relative to that of a novice who has just enough knowledge to outperform Al, governs the overall impact of the technology. Our central result is that careers are guaranteed viable, in the sense that they are at least as profitable as they were before the arrival of Al, when this ratio is above a critical threshold, specifically Euler’s number e; in this case, training has a fixed duration and the training path is not at risk. Below the threshold, the senior’s sale-able knowledge shrinks and training compresses; in this case, advances in Al threaten wholesale career collapse.

Whether attending in person or virtually, please register in advance.

The Growth Lab’s Research Seminar series is a weekly seminar that brings together researchers from across the academic spectrum who share an interest in growth and development.