Research Seminar – Urban-Biased Growth: A Macroeconomic Analysis
March 26 | 10:30 am – 11:45 am
The Growth Lab’s Research Seminar series is a weekly seminar that brings together researchers from across the academic spectrum who share an interest in growth and development.
Speaker: Fabian Eckert is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego
Please register in advance.
Abstract: After 1980, larger US cities experienced substantially faster wage growth than smaller ones. We show that this urban bias mainly reflected wage growth at large Business Services firms. These firms stand out through their high per-worker expenditure on information technology and disproportionate presence in big cities. We introduce a spatial model of investment-specific technical change that can rationalize these patterns. Using the model as an accounting framework, we find that the observed decline in the investment price of information technology capital explains most urban-biased growth by raising the profits of large Business Services firms in big cities.
Link to the paper: https://fpeckert.me/papers/ubg.pdf
Bio: Fabian Eckert is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego, specializing in spatial economics, macroeconomics, international economics, and urban economics. His research explores how geography, urban development, and economic policy shape inequality and growth. He serves as an Associate Editor at the Journal of International Economics and is a partner at UCSD’s Prosperity and Globalization Lab. Fabian holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Yale University.
Research Seminar: Demand & Supply Side Linkages in Exporting Multiproduct Firms
March 12 | 10:30 am – 11:45 am
The Growth Lab’s Research Seminar series is a weekly seminar that brings together researchers from across the academic spectrum who share an interest in growth and development.
Speaker: Lisandra Flach, Professor of Economics at Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU Munich) and Director of the ifo Center for International Economics
Whether attending in person or virtually, please register in advance.
Abstract: Products produced by a multiproduct firm can be linked through demand linkages or supply linkages. On the demand side, changes in the price of one product can affect the demand for a firm’s other products through shifts in consumer expenditures. This is commonly referred to as the cannibalization effect. On the supply side, joint inputs can create a dependency of one product’s marginal costs on the output of other products. The existence of these linkages is important for how firms respond to shocks and has major implications for several performance measures, such as productivity and markups. This paper provides the first empirical evidence for the existence of cannibalization linkages in the presence of supply linkages, which is implied evidence for market power.
Link to the paper: https://cepr.org/publications/dp18627
Bio: Lisandra Flach is a Professor of Economics at Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU Munich) and Director of the ifo Center for International Economics. Her research focuses on international trade, firm dynamics, and global value chains, with a particular interest in the effects of trade policy. She is a Research Fellow at CESifo, a Research Affiliate at CEPR, and serves as an Associate Editor for leading economic journals. Her work has been widely recognized, earning her awards such as the “Top 40 under 40” and “Germany’s 10 Most Promising Young Economists.”
Faculty Webinar: Strategies for Inclusive Growth
March 18, 2024 | 1:00 pm – 2:00 pm
Join Profs. Matt Andrews and Ricardo Hausmann for a one-hour webinar on the rapidly evolving paths to economic prosperity and how rethinking economic policy, from design to implementation, can advance shared prosperity for all.
Registration is required.
This free, live webinar is a precursor to the upcoming Harvard Kennedy School Executive Education program, Strategies for Inclusive Growth. The recording will be distributed to all registrants. This presentation does not qualify for a certificate.
Research Seminar – AI-generated Production Networks: Measurement and Applications to Global Trade
March 5 | 11:30 am – 12:45 pm
The Growth Lab’s Research Seminar series is a weekly seminar that brings together researchers from across the academic spectrum who share an interest in growth and development.
Speaker: Thiemo Fetzer, Professor of Economics at Warwick University and at the University of Bonn
This is an online only event. Please register in advance.
Paper Abstract: This paper leverages generative AI to build a network structure over 5,000 product nodes, where directed edges represent input-output relationships in production. We layout a two-step ‘build-prune’ approach using an ensemble of prompt-tuned generative AI classifications. The ’build’ step provides an initial distribution of edge-predictions, the ‘prune’ step then re-evaluates all edges. With our AI-generated Production Network (AIPNET) in toe, we document a host of shifts in the network position of products and countries during the 21st century. Finally, we study production network spillovers using the natural experiment presented by the 2017 blockade of Qatar. We find strong evidence of such spillovers, suggestive of on-shoring of critical production. This descriptive and causal evidence demonstrates some of the many research possibilities opened up by our granular measurement of product linkages, including studies of on-shoring, industrial policy, and other recent shifts in global trade.
About the Speaker: Thiemo Fetzer is Professor of Economics at Warwick University and at the University of Bonn. Thiemo is also an Academic Visitor at the Bank of England, an Affiliate at the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) and a Fellow at the British National Institute for Social and Economic Research (NIESR).
His work cross cuts many fields in economics ranging from international trade, economic development, finance, to spatial economics and political economy leveraging frontier techniques from machine learning, artificial intelligence and computer science.
Thiemo has advised a range of players and policy makers in some G20 countries on issues around economic development and industrial policy, with a special focus on the economic, social and institutional and political-economic adjustments that are necessary to counter the climate crisis and help shift societies out of the non-cooperative loose-loose equilibria. His research has been featured in national and international media such as Bloomberg, New York Times, The Guardian, Financial Times, Le Monde, El País, and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
Research Seminar: Trade, Innovation and Optimal Patent Protection
February 26 | 11:30 pm – February 27 | 12:45 am
The Growth Lab’s Research Seminar series is a weekly seminar that brings together researchers from across the academic spectrum who share an interest in growth and development.
Speaker: Thomas Sampson, Associate Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics
Whether attending in person or virtually, please register in advance.
Paper Abstract: Intellectual property rights are a recurrent source of tensions between developed and developing economies. This paper provides the first quantitative analysis of optimal patent policy in trading economies. We develop a new model of trade, growth and patenting in which patent protection affects both innovation and market power. The model is estimated using data on patent applications to calibrate patent protection by country and the geography of innovation. Counterfactual analysis yields three main results. First, the potential gains from international cooperation over patent policies are large. However, achieving these gains requires more innovative economies to offer stronger protection. Second, only a small share of these gains has been realized so far. And third, by pushing towards policy harmonization, the TRIPS agreement hurts developing countries without generating global welfare gains. Overall, there is substantial scope for policy reforms to increase efficiency.
Link to the paper:
https://personal.lse.ac.uk/sampsont/TradePatents.pdf
About the Speaker: Thomas Sampson is an Associate Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, where he has taught since 2011. He earned his PhD from Harvard University, focusing on international trade and labor. Prior to his current role, he served as a consultant for organizations such as the Bank of England, the World Bank, and the Bank of Papua New Guinea. His research explores questions at the intersection of trade policy, economic growth, and innovation, including the impact of Brexit on the UK economy. Thomas is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research and an Associate at the Centre for Economic Performance.
Leading Green Growth with Ricardo Hausmann and Daniel Schrag
February 13 | 12:00 pm – 1:00 pm
Research Seminar – From Labor to Intermediates: Firm Growth, Input Substitution, and Monopsony
February 5 | 11:30 am – 12:45 pm
The Growth Lab’s Research Seminar series is a weekly seminar that brings together researchers from across the academic spectrum who share an interest in growth and development.
Speaker: Matthias Mertens, postdoctoral associate at MIT FutureTech
Whether attending in person or virtually, please register in advance.
Paper Abstract: (Matthias Mertens with Benjamin Schoefer from UC Berkeley) We document and dissect a new stylized fact about firm growth: the shift from labor to intermediate inputs. This shift occurs in input quantities, cost and output shares, and output elasticities. We establish this regularity in firm data for Germany and in firm (and industry) data for 11 (21) additional countries. We explain this regularity through a parsimonious model featuring an elasticity of substitution between intermediates and labor above one, and an increasing shadow price of labor (monopsony or adjustment costs). Labor-intermediates substitution also accounts for much of the labor share decline that we document accompanies firm and industry growth.
About the Speaker: Matthias is a postdoctoral associate at MIT FutureTech. His primary focus includes analyzing firm productivity, production technologies, and market power. He completed his Ph.D. at the Halle Institute for Economic Research in collaboration with the Otto-von-Guericke University in Magdeburg. Prior to joining MIT, Matthias led the Research Group at the Halle Institute for Economic Research and coordinated the Scientific Team at the Competitiveness Research Network, where he oversaw the data collection team responsible for constructing the CompNet database for several years.
Diversifying from Oil: Aspirations and Results of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030
December 5, 2024 | 1:00 pm – 2:00 pm
The Growth Lab’s “Development Talks” is a series of conversations with policymakers and academics working on economic growth and development in countries, regions, states and cities in the US and around the world. The seminar provides a platform for practitioners and researchers to discuss both economic growth and development and analytical work centered on policy.
Speaker: Ziad Daoud, Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Bloomberg LP, Senior Fellow with the Middle East Initiative at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
Moderator: Tim Cheston, Senior Manager, Applied Research, Growth Lab
About the Talk: One of the goals of the Saudi Vision 2030 is to diversify the Saudi economy away from oil. In this event, Ziad Daoud, Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Bloomberg LP, will analyze the results of Saudi diversification efforts and whether Saudi Vision 2030 is succeeding in decreasing the economy’s reliance on oil revenue. Tim Cheston, Senior Manager at the Growth Lab, will follow with a discussion on the challenges to economic diversification in an oil economy.
Whether attending in person or online, please register in advance. Room attendance is limited to the Harvard community. Buffet lunch will be served. Seating availability is based on a first-come, first-served basis. The Zoom webinar is open to the public.
About the Speaker: Ziad Daoud is a Senior Fellow with the Middle East Initiative at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. He is the Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Bloomberg. Prior to that, he was the Chief Middle East Economist at Bloomberg, Head of Economics at QNB Group, and an economist at Fulcrum Asset Management. He holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics and a BSc in economics and statistics from University College London.
Can South Africa’s Government of National Unity Deliver?
December 3, 2024 | 1:00 pm – 2:00 pm
The Growth Lab’s “Development Talks” is a series of conversations with policymakers and academics working on economic growth and development in countries, regions, states and cities in the US and around the world. The seminar provides a platform for practitioners and researchers to discuss both economic growth and development and analytical work centered on policy.
Speaker: Ann Bernstein, Executive Director, Centre for Development and Enterprise (CDE)
About the Talk: For the past year, the Centre for Development and Enterprise (CDE) has been working on a major initiative, AGENDA 2024: Priorities for South Africa’s new government. It sets out to answer what is by far the most important question facing the country: What can the new government do to get the country back on track after 15 years of stagnation and decline? This initiative builds on the Growth Lab’s Growth through Inclusion in South Africa project that was supported by CDE between 2021 and 2023. In this talk, Ann Bernstein will discuss South Africa and the government of national unity (GNU) that was formed following the May 2024 general election.
Whether attending in person or online, please register in advance. Room attendance is limited to the Harvard community. Buffet lunch will be served. Seating availability is based on a first-come, first-served basis. The Zoom webinar is open to the public.
About the Speaker: Ann Bernstein heads the Centre for Development and Enterprise, South Africa. An independent think tank CDE is South Africa’s leading development policy centre, with a special focus on growth, jobs, education, cities and the role of business. Member of the Transition Team, then the Board of the Development Bank of Southern Africa (1994 – 2001). Fellow, National Endowment for Democracy, Washington DC (2005). Public Policy Scholar, Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington DC, 2013. Board member Brenthurst Foundation 2007-2017. In 2008 and 2009 invited African faculty member, World Economic Forum, Davos. Invited Fellow Bellagio Center, Rockefeller Foundation 2016. Her book, The Case for Business in Developing Economies (Penguin 2010) received favourable reviews in South African media, the Economist, Financial Times, Forbes and elsewhere. The book won the Sir Anthony Fisher Award 2012, Atlas Research Foundation, Washington DC.
The Social and Environmental Consequences of the Twin Energy-Digital Transition
November 20, 2024 | 11:30 pm
The Growth Lab’s Research Seminar series is a weekly seminar that brings together researchers from across the academic spectrum who share an interest in growth and development.
Speaker: Aurélien Saussay, Assistant Professorial Research Fellow, Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics
Whether attending in person or virtually, please register in advance.
Abstract: We analyze the labor market and environmental impacts of the concurrent diffusion of green and automation technologies using a novel dataset linking patent data to establishment-level job postings from 2010 to 2023. We develop a new measure of establishment-level technology adoption by constructing semantic similarity links between patent content and skill requirements in online job advertisements. We contribute three novel findings. First, we document substantial heterogeneity in the labor market impacts across green technology types: innovations in green ICT and buildings technologies appear labor-augmenting, while advances in green transportation and smart grids tend to be labor-saving. Over time, green innovation as a whole has become increasingly labor-saving. Second, using a shift-share instrumental variable (SSIV) empirical design, we find that increased green technology adoption leads to job creations, which are moderately skill-biased. Finally, despite potential concerns, we find no evidence that automation technology adoption weakens emissions reductions at the establishment level. Our results suggest that the twin green-digital transition may support both employment and environmental goals.
Speaker bio: Aurélien Saussay is an Assistant Professorial Research Fellow in the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics. He currently holds a Leverhulme Early Career Fellowship (2022-2025). He will be visiting Harvard Kennedy School in the Fall Semester 2024. His research focuses on the interaction between economic inequality and climate change mitigation policies, in order to address the social and political acceptance challenges that hamper the implementation of effective decarbonisation. He aims to estimate the impacts of climate change mitigation on economic agents empirically to help improve the design of decarbonization policies. He was previously an economist at OFCE, Sciences Po, where he led the environmental economics team. He remains an associate researcher and is one of the main co-authors of the Multi-sector Macroeconomic Model for the Evaluation of Environmental and Energy policies (ThreeME), which is used extensively in France, the Netherlands, Mexico and Indonesia to assess the economic consequences of energy transition scenarios.