Advancing Economic Development and Environmental Sustainability in the Amazonian Regions in Colombia

This project aims to generate new economic prosperity in the Colombian Amazon that does not sacrifice the forest.

PROJECT DATES

September 2021–February 2023

FUNDED BY

The Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation

Does economic prosperity in the Colombian Amazon require sacrificing the forest? The project presents findings that break from the prevailing dialogue of a perceived trade-off between conservationism and development to identify pathways that promote economic development and environmental sustainability. By matching the pioneering methods of the Growth Lab with the local expertise of Moore Foundation partners, local stakeholders, and national decision-makers, the engagement works to produce data-driven research inputs and actionable policy options to foster economic prosperity without harming the forest in the Colombian Amazon. The Colombian Amazon finds itself in the lose-lose scenario of high deforestation and low economic growth. The recent, alarming rise in deforestation has not been accompanied by greater economic growth. The existing economic model in the Amazon – centered on resource extraction and agrarian colonization – has not generated prosperity for the people, all while failing the forest.

More About This Project

Perhaps the most underappreciated facet of life in each of the three Amazonian regions studied, Caquetá, Guaviare, and Putumayo, is that the majority of people live in urban areas. This is a telling fact of economic geography: that even in the remote parts of the Amazon, people want to come together to live in densely populated areas. This corroborates the findings of our global research over the past two decades that prosperity results from expanding the productive capabilities available locally to diversify production to do more, and more complex, activities. The engagement aims to provide rigorous, data-driven research on the economic sectors with high potential to drive economic growth and the binding constraints that are preventing these opportunities from realizing.

The drivers of deforestation and prosperity are distinct – as they happen in different places. Deforestation occurs at the agricultural frontier, in destroying some of the world’s most complex biodiversity by some of the least economically complex activities, particularly cattleranching. The economic drivers in the Amazon are its urban areas often located far from the forest edge. These cities offer greater economic complexity by accessing a wider range of productive capabilities in higher-income activities with little presence of those activities driving deforestation.

This project aims to provide inputs and policy options to accelerate the development of the Amazonian region and generate prosperity in a sustainable way. It comprises three essential inputs for the design of productive development policies in Caquetá, Guaviare, and Putumayo:

  • Policy Options Report for the Colombian Amazon: A report aimed at addressing the binding constraints and promoting the distinct productive opportunities in Caquetá, Guaviare, and Putumayo to achieve greater prosperity without sacrificing the forest.
  • Economic Complexity Report of the Colombian Amazon: A report on the existing productive knowhow and the opportunities to diversify the economy to drive growth consistent with the environmental services these regions render. 
  • Growth Diagnostic for the Colombian Amazon: A report on the binding constraints that inhibit growth and the realization of opportunities for productive diversification in Caquetá, Guaviare, and Putumayo.
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Key Diagnosis

The central conclusion of the work is that achieving economic prosperity in the Colombian Amazon does not require sacrificing the forest. Deforestation in the Colombian Amazon is driven by two factors: proximity to tertiary roads and the “moral hazard” of land regimes with provisions that exempt deforestation today with potential future land formalization.

More Information

Shared prosperity is easier to achieve in urban areas than in the forest. The solution to deforestation, as with that of creating shared prosperity, relies on generating better opportunities in cities to pull more people in from rural areas to reduce the pressure on expanding the agricultural frontier into the forest.

The low prosperity in the Colombian Amazon is driven by the lack of prosperous cities. Creating opportunities in Amazonian cities is constrained by a “connectivity trap”: the lack of primary road connections with the rest of Colombia restricts the economic complexity of the Amazon and, in turn, the low complexity of the cities limits the returns to new investments.

Achieving shared prosperity in the Amazon depends on the connectivity and opportunity in its urban areas. The strategy should be territorial across three geographies of opportunity: (i) in cities, through tourism services, transport services, professional services, and agro-processing industry; (ii) in rural non-forested areas, in more intensive crops and sustainable agroforestry; and (iii) in forest areas, based on ecotourism, carbon markets for reforestation, and forest protection services. In addition, the Colombian Amazon needs a new forest protection law based on a simple premise: define the forest you wish to protect and put it under a legal regime that eliminates the moral hazard by forbidding future land formalization.

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Affiliated Publications

  • Book Chapter

    Cheston, T., 2025

    Economic Prosperity With Environmental Preservation

    Cities in Amazonia: People and Nature in Harmony, 165-167.

    The publication sheds light on the ongoing urbanization in Amazonia and emphasizes the need for urgent action to guide it towards sustainability, improving both forest protection and the well-being of its residents.

    This book explores the complex and rapidly evolving urbanization of Amazonia, a vast, diverse, and ecologically critical region undergoing a profound transformation. Amazonia is now home to nearly 41 million urban residents across 895 settlements — and yet its urbanization remains poorly understood, underestimated in scale, fragmented in form, and frequently overlooked in policy.

    Through multidisciplinary perspectives and contributions from more than 50 experts, this book examines how urban growth intersects with environmental degradation, social inequality, and gaps in governance. Despite these challenges, cities in Amazonia are also places of promising innovations, from tailored healthcare services and environmental monitoring to community-led planning and cross-border cooperation.

    Rooted in both local insight and regional coordination frameworks, including the Amazonia Forever program, this work offers a holistic and evidence-based understanding of urbanization in Amazonia. It argues for urgent, coordinated action to guide sustainable, inclusive development — before current urbanization trajectories lead to irreversible ecological and social consequences. The book invites researchers, policymakers and practitioners to recognize Amazonia’s cities not only as sites of vulnerability but as key agents in shaping the region’s — and the planet’s — future.

    Chapter four highlights successful practices and innovative approaches that address this region’s urban challenges. Some focus on people, improving healthcare, and mapping needs for riverine communities. Others emphasize environmental care, with cities leading sustainability efforts, nature-based solutions, partnerships and ecosystem restoration to boost resilience. It also stresses the importance of increasing prosperity by finding opportunities even under difficult, cross-border conditions

    Keywords: urbanization, cities, urban areas, sustainability, climate, productivity, well-being, infrastructure, Amazonia, urban development

    JEL Codes: R11; R12; O18; R58; J24; R42; Q54; Z13

  • Working Papers

    Bustos, S., Cheston, T. & Rao, N., 2023

    The Missing Economic Diversity of the Colombian Amazon

    Alarming rates of forest loss in the Colombian Amazon have created a perceived trade-off that the only means of achieving economic prosperity is by sacrificing the forest. This study finds […]
    Growth Lab

    Alarming rates of forest loss in the Colombian Amazon have created a perceived trade-off that the only means of achieving economic prosperity is by sacrificing the forest. This study finds little evidence of this trade-off; rather, we find that economic development and forest protection are not an either-or choice. Forest clearing is driven by extensive cattle-ranching as a means to secure land titles. In essence, the loss of some of the world’s richest biodiversity is the result of some of the least economically complex activities that fail to achieve economic prosperity in the region. If anything, the acceleration in deforestation has accompanied a period of economic stagnation.

    The existing economic model in the Amazon – centered on agrarian colonization and mineral extraction – has not generated prosperity for the people, all while failing the forest. The exceptional diversity of the Amazon’s biome is not reflected in the region’s economy. The Amazonian economy is best characterized by its low diversity and low complexity. A significant proportion of employment is linked to public administration – more than in other departments of the country. Very little of the production in the departments is destined to be consumed outside the departments (“exported”).

    This study seeks to define an alternative economic model for the Colombian Amazon from the perspective of economic complexity with environmental sustainability. Economic complexity research finds that the productive potential of places depends not only on the soil or natural resources, but on the productive capabilities—or knowhow—held by its people. This research finds that the Colombian Amazon will not become rich by adding value to its raw materials or by specializing in one economic activity. Rather, economic development is best described as a process of expanding the set of capabilities present to be able to produce a more diverse set of goods, of increasingly greater complexity. This model starts from the base of understanding the existing productive capabilities in Caquetá, Guaviare, and Putumayo, to identify high-potential economic sectors that build off those capabilities to achieve new, sustainable pathways to shared prosperity.

    Achieving shared prosperity in the Amazon depends on the connectivity and opportunity in its urban areas. The primary drivers of greater economic complexity – and prosperity – are the cities in the Amazon. Even in the remote areas of the Amazon, the majority of people in Caquetá, Guaviare, and Putumayo live in urban areas. The low prosperity in the Colombian Amazon is driven by the lack of prosperous cities. The report finds that Amazonian cities are affected by the lack of connectivity to major Colombian cities that limit their ability to ‘export’ things outside the department to then expand the capacity to ‘import’ the things that are not produced locally as a means to improve well-being.

  • Working Papers

    Goldstein, P., et al., 2023

    The Connectivity Trap: Stuck between the Forest and Shared Prosperity in the Colombian Amazon

    The Colombian Amazon faces the dual challenge of low economic growth and high deforestation. High rates of deforestation in Colombia have led to a perceived trade-off between economic development and […]
    Growth Lab

    The Colombian Amazon faces the dual challenge of low economic growth and high deforestation. High rates of deforestation in Colombia have led to a perceived trade-off between economic development and protecting the forest. However, we find little evidence of this trade-off: rising deforestation is not associated with higher economic growth. In fact, the forces of deforestation of some of the world’s most complex biodiversity are driven by some of the least complex economic activities, like cattle-ranching, whose subsistence-level incomes are unable to meet the economic ambitions for the region. All the while, the majority of the Amazonian departments’ population works in non-forested cities and towns, at a distance from the agriculture frontier that forms the “arc of deforestation.” The relative urbanization of the Amazonian departments, despite the vast land mass available, recognizes that prosperity is achieved through close social-economic interactions to expand the knowledge set available to be able to produce more, and more complex activities. Achieving economic goals therefore relies on creating new productive opportunities in non-forested, urban areas.

    The risk of deforestation reduces incentives to improve the connectivity of Amazonian departments with major cities and export markets. The remoteness of these departments increases the cost of ‘exporting’ goods to markets outside the departments. Poor connectivity contributes to the low economic complexity of the departments. In turn, the low complexity reduces incentives to coordinate new investments that would generate returns to greater connectivity. Coordination failures, which occur when a group of economic actors (e.g., firms, workers) could achieve a better outcome but fail to do so because they do not coordinate their actions, are widespread in all three of the Amazonian departments studied. This limits the creation of new capabilities and productive diversification to generate new jobs and higher incomes.

    We posit that economic growth in the Colombian Amazonian is limited by a “connectivity trap” whereby the lack of external market connectivity restricts economic complexity, and, in turn, the low complexity fosters the coordination failures that limit returns to new diversification. Ultimately, low returns to diversification further reduce incentives to improve connectivity. Underpinning the connectivity trap is the belief that limiting the connectivity of Amazonian departments with large Colombian cities and the broader global economy will limit incentives for deforestation. Yet, deforestation has accelerated in recent years, despite the continued poor connectivity. We argue that Colombia must create a new national law to curb deforestation by eliminating the financial incentives for land speculation. Reclassifying forested lands under the control of national protection systems with severe restrictions on economic activities and strengthened enforcement, as detailed in an accompanying report, provides the needed legal clarity regarding land formalization. Within the law to eliminate incentives for deforestation, the national government should create a new development approach for the Colombian Amazon. This approach must move beyond a natural resource-based approach to the region, to center on the productive potential of its urban areas, and the carbon markets and tourism potential of its forested areas. One pillar of this approach is to build new public sector capabilities to coordinate investments into new, targeted productive sectors to create new national-local mechanisms of investment promotion. A second pillar is to improve connectivity to external markets through road and air investments between Caquetá, Guaviare, and Putumayo and major cities and ports.

  • Working Papers

    Cheston, T., et al., 2023

    Seeing the Forest for More than the Trees: A Policy Strategy to Curb Deforestation and Advance Shared Prosperity in the Colombian Amazon

    Does economic prosperity in the Colombian Amazon require sacrificing the forest? This research compendium of a series of studies on the Colombian Amazon finds the answer to this question is […]
    Growth Lab
    Does economic prosperity in the Colombian Amazon require sacrificing the forest? This research compendium of a series of studies on the Colombian Amazon finds the answer to this question is no: the perceived trade-off between economic growth and forest protection is a false dichotomy. The drivers of deforestation and prosperity are distinct – as they happen in different places. Deforestation occurs at the agricultural frontier, in destroying some of the world’s most complex biodiversity by some of the least economically complex activities, particularly cattle-ranching. By contrast, the economic drivers in the Amazon are its urban areas often located far from the forest edge, including in non-forested piedmont regions. These cities offer greater economic complexity by accessing a wider range of productive capabilities in higher-income activities with little presence of those activities driving deforestation. Perhaps the most underappreciated facet of life in each of the three Amazonian regions studied, Caquetá, Guaviare, and Putumayo, is that the majority of people live in urban areas. This is a telling fact of economic geography: that even in the remote parts of the Amazon, people want to come together to live in densely populated areas. This corroborates the findings of our global research over the past two decades that prosperity results from expanding the productive capabilities available locally to diversify production to do more, and more complex, activities.
  • Working Papers

    Cheston, T. & Rueda-Sanz, A., 2023

    The Economic Tale of Two Amazons: Lessons in Generating Shared Prosperity while Protecting the Forest in the Peruvian and Colombian Amazon

    Achieving economic prosperity in the Amazon rainforest is often seen as incompatible with protecting the forest. Environmental researchers rightly warn that rapid deforestation is pushing the Amazon close to a […]
    Growth Lab
    Achieving economic prosperity in the Amazon rainforest is often seen as incompatible with protecting the forest. Environmental researchers rightly warn that rapid deforestation is pushing the Amazon close to a potential tipping point of forest dieback into grassy savanna. Less has been said about what is required to generate shared prosperity in Amazonian communities. Deforestation is often treated as inevitable to serve human needs, local and global. This report synthesizes the findings of two engagements by the Growth Lab at Harvard University that study the nature of economic growth in two Amazonian contexts: Loreto in Peru, and Caquetá, Guaviare, and Putumayo, in Colombia. The aim of these engagements is to leverage the Growth Lab’s global research into the nature of economic growth to apply those methods to the unique challenge of developing paths to prosperity in the Amazon in ways that do not harm the forest. This report compares and contrasts the findings from the Peruvian and Colombian Amazon to assess the extent to which there are generalizable lessons on the relationship between economic growth and forest protection in the Amazon.
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EN VIVO: Debate ambiental, con los candidatos a la Presidencia de Colombia

El tiempo se agota y el planeta está en riesgo. Los candidatos presidenciales respondieron a expertos sobre la crisis ambiental que vive Colombia y los efectos que genera para la […]

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Team Members

Ricardo Hausmann

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Ricardo Hausmann

Director

sarah-bui

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Sarah Bui

Former Research Assistant

Sebastian Bustos head shot

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Sebastian Bustos

Senior Research Fellow

Tim Cheston

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Tim Cheston

Senior Manager, Applied Research

tim-freeman

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Tim Freeman

Research Fellow

Shreyas

Person

Shreyas Gadgin Matha

Senior Computational Social Scientist

Patricio Goldstein

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Patricio Goldstein

Former Research Manager

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Person

Eduardo Lora

Former Associate

nidhi-rao

Person

Nidhi Rao

Former Research Assistant

Alejandro Rueda Sanz

Person

Alejandro Rueda-Sanz

Research Fellow

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