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  • Journal Articles

    Gadgin Matha, S., et al., 2026

    Burning bridges or bridging divides: Geopolitics and collaboration in research and innovation

    This paper analyzes the association between geopolitical alignment and international research and innovation collaborations using data spanning 2000–2023. Using ideal point distance measures derived from UN General Assembly voting patterns, […]
    Growth Lab

    This paper analyzes the association between geopolitical alignment and international research and innovation collaborations using data spanning 2000–2023. Using ideal point distance measures derived from UN General Assembly voting patterns, we find that increases in geopolitical distance are associated with reductions in international collaborations. A one-unit increase in geopolitical distance (roughly the distance between a median country pair) over three years is associated with a 3.1% reduction in collaborations in scientific publications (0.8% per standard deviation). We also find that this relationship is asymmetric: worsening geopolitical relations are associated with reductions in collaborations in scientific publications that are roughly three times larger than the gains associated with equivalent improvements, suggesting that international research partnerships are easier to damage than to build. At the technology level, critical technologies exhibit approximately three times the expected level of international collaboration compared to other fields (conditional on country-pair effects), yet are also more sensitive to shifts in geopolitical alignment, raising concerns about technology sovereignty. At the same time, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, overall collaboration patterns have not undergone substantial changes in recent years, suggesting resilience in international research and innovation networks.

  • Books

    Hausmann, R. & Protzer, E., 2026

    Canada After America

    For generations, Canada built its prosperity on economic integration with the United States, only to find itself hostage to its nearest neighbor.In Canada After America, economists Ricardo Hausmann and Eric […]
    Canada After America book cover

    For generations, Canada built its prosperity on economic integration with the United States, only to find itself hostage to its nearest neighbor.

    In Canada After America, economists Ricardo Hausmann and Eric Protzer offer a bold, practical strategy for Canadian prosperity in a radically changed world.

    Drawing on research from the Harvard Growth Lab and the insights of economic complexity, they argue that the answer is not to retreat from globalization, but to become far better at competing in the rest of the world. Canada must get more of its natural resources to global markets while building industries—aerospace, life sciences, technology—that can overcome the tyranny of distance.

    It won’t be easy. Despite world-class universities and research, Canada’s private-sector knowledge economy remains stunted. The country has failed to build and sustain large, research-intensive companies and the dynamic cities in which they flourish. It must abandon its “small is beautiful” approach to innovation, remove barriers to growth, and enable its most promising firms to scale.

    The rupture with America is a crisis—but also a historic opportunity to build a more innovative, resilient, and globally competitive Canada.

  • Working Papers

    Garcia, F. & Hausmann, R., 2026

    A Change of Denomination: The Case for CPI-Indexed World Bank Lending

    This paper asks whether the World Bank can change the denomination of its lending without weakening its own financial position. Using monthly CPI and exchange rate data, we construct the […]
    Growth Lab


    This paper asks whether the World Bank can change the denomination of its lending without weakening its own financial position. Using monthly CPI and exchange rate data, we construct the dollar returns the Bank would earn on loans indexed to borrowers’ domestic inflation and aggregate those returns using current IBRD and IDA portfolio weights. Portfolio returns are less volatile because cross-country correlations are low. The diversification dividend is large enough to make the financially indifferent coupon on a CPI-indexed instrument close to, and in some cases below, current lending rates. The World Bank can reduce one of the core sources of macroeconomic instability in borrowing countries at little or no financial cost to itself. 

  • Web Articles

    Garcia, F. & Venturi, L., 2026

    Argentina’s second test: can the Milei government deliver lasting growth?

    Economics Observatory

    President Milei’s stabilisation is delivering results: inflation is down, growth has returned and exports are playing a larger role in the recovery. But Argentina’s second test is harder: turning macroeconomic […]
    Growth Lab

    President Milei’s stabilisation is delivering results: inflation is down, growth has returned and exports are playing a larger role in the recovery. But Argentina’s second test is harder: turning macroeconomic stability into investment, jobs and higher real wages before the political clock runs out.

  • Journal Articles

    Pritchett, L. & Viarengo, M., 2026

    Raising the Bar: An Inclusive Global Poverty Line

    The first of the United Nations 2015 Sustainable Development Goals is: “End poverty in all its forms everywhere.” An implication of this broad goal is the existence of an array […]
    Growth Lab

    The first of the United Nations 2015 Sustainable Development Goals is: “End poverty in all its forms everywhere.” An implication of this broad goal is the existence of an array of poverty lines, which raises the question of an appropriate lower-bound and an upper-bound to global poverty lines. The ‘dollar-a-day’ poverty line (updated for inflation to P$2.15 in 2017 PPP) is widely accepted as a global lower-bound poverty line (GLBPL). However, while different countries, organizations, and authors use higher poverty lines, there is no consensus on a global upper bound poverty line (GUBPL). We estimate a GUBPL using two conceptually distinct approaches, both grounded in the tension between the focus axiom for poverty measures and standard economic social welfare measures. We set a candidate GUBPL either at: (i) the consumption consistent with the achievement of adequate material well-being or (ii) the consumption level where marginal utility is “near enough” zero. Using either approach, empirical results across an array of measures of well-being demonstrate that ad hoc poverty lines, including the World Bank’s highest reported poverty line of P$6.85, are far too low to be plausible candidates for a GUBPL. Using the two approaches across four distinct indicators of well-being all of the empirical results suggest a GUBPL of at least P$21.5, ten times higher than the standard GLPBL of P$2.15. The use of both a lower bound and upper bound global poverty line balances the radically exclusive nature of the ‘dollar-a-day’ standard, which classifies people with very low levels of material well-being and hence very high marginal utility of income as “not poor” with an equally radically inclusive GUBPL which counts only those with globally high material achievement and low (ish) marginal utility of income as “not poor.”

    UNU-WIDER blog: Raising the bar – an inclusive poverty line

  • Working Papers

    Chacua, C. & Hartog, M., 2026

    Complexity: Hausmann-Hidalgo Economic Complexity 

    Economic complexity is an active field with a growing number of methodologies and applications. Among the different paradigms, the Hausmann-Hidalgo economic complexity framework offers a way to quantify the sophistication […]
    Growth Lab


    Economic complexity is an active field with a growing number of methodologies and applications. Among the different paradigms, the Hausmann-Hidalgo economic complexity framework offers a way to quantify the sophistication and productive knowledge embedded in an economy. In this work, we provide an overview of its foundational concepts, empirical applications, policy uses, and directions for future research. We aim to equip readers with a basic understanding of this framework in simple words and to help them navigate the vast literature. We argue that the Hausmann-Hidalgo economic complexity serves as a flexible framework for understanding the dynamics of knowledge diversification across multiple economic domains and provides a starting point for the design of place-based policies. 

  • Journal Articles

    Yildirim, M., 2026

    AI and Trade: Why Europe Cannot Afford to Lag on Adoption

    EconPol Forum, 27, 15-20.

    Our analysis shows that countries can benefit from foreign AI progress through cheaper imports, but without sufficient domestic adoption, they risk losing competitiveness in AI-exposed sectors.
    Growth Lab

    Artificial intelligence (AI), and generative AI in particular, is poised to transform productivity across a broad range of activities, with the strongest effects concentrated in knowledge-intensive services such as finance, professional services, and ICT. Its economic impact will nevertheless depend on how quickly countries adopt and integrate it into their economies. Evidence points to substantial cross-country differences in adoption, particularly within Europe. Yet AI is not only a domestic transformation; it is also a productivity shock transmitted through international trade. Productivity gains abroad lower import prices and reshape competitiveness across countries and sectors. Our analysis shows that these forces interact: countries can benefit from foreign AI progress through cheaper imports, but without sufficient domestic adoption, they risk losing competitiveness in AI-exposed sectors. The global diffusion of AI therefore makes domestic adoption capacity and openness to trade complementary determinants of future growth.

  • Working Papers

    Bahar, D., et al., 2026

    Japan’s Innovation Challenge: Escaping the Middle-Technology Trap

    Japan remains one of the world’s most technologically sophisticated economies, yet its labor productivity has been stagnant for more than two decades. This paper investigates the apparent contradiction between Japan’s high R&D intensity and its weak productivity performance by examining the allocation, composition, and effectiveness of innovation across industries.
    Growth Lab


    Japan remains one of the world’s most technologically sophisticated economies, yet its labor productivity has been stagnant for more than two decades. This paper investigates the apparent contradiction between Japan’s high R&D intensity and its weak productivity performance by examining the allocation, composition, and effectiveness of innovation across industries. Using industry-level data from the OECD, patent-level data linked across technology and industry classifications, and a set of nine technological taxonomies, we document that Japan disproportionately concentrates R&D in mid-technology manufacturing sectors—such as motor vehicles, electrical equipment, and chemicals—that generate relatively low productivity spillovers. High-technology sectors, including ICT, pharmaceuticals, scientific R&D, and advanced digital services, receive a significantly smaller share of investment and exhibit much higher productivity contributions in other countries. We further show that Japan’s indirect, tax-based system of R&D support reinforces this equilibrium by favoring large incumbents and under-supporting SMEs. We conclude by assessing the potential of Japan’s new 17-sector strategy to reorient the innovation system toward frontier technologies.

  • Working Papers

    Filippucci, F., et al., 2026

    AI Meets Trade: Global Linkages and the Cross-country Distribution of the Gains from AI 

    This paper provides estimates of expected per capita real income gains from AI over the next decade in OECD and G20 economies. It relies on a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium […]
    Growth Lab

    This paper provides estimates of expected per capita real income gains from AI over the next decade in OECD and G20 economies. It relies on a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model to incorporate the role of international trade and considers different scenarios regarding AI adoption paths and AI capabilities. In our central scenario, AI-driven productivity gains vary widely across countries and are expected to raise per capita real income growth by 0.1–0.95 percentage points annually. The model’s dynamics reveal a key insight: while countries lagging in AI adoption can gain from cheaper, AI-intensive imports generated by global diffusion, maintaining competitiveness – especially in highly AI-exposed sectors – ultimately requires strong domestic AI adoption. As a further channel, the paper quantifies the welfare effects generated by international knowledge spillovers boosting AI adoption of countries with relatively lower AI adoption. 

  • Working Papers

    Hausmann, R., et al., 2026

    Un Giro Económico para Bolivia: Principales Hallazgos y Prioridades de Reforma

    Esta publicación sintetiza los principales hallazgos y recomendaciones de la serie de investigaciones: Un giro económico para Bolivia. Examinamos los orígenes de la crisis actual y proponemos una estrategia para […]
    Growth Lab

    Esta publicación sintetiza los principales hallazgos y recomendaciones de la serie de investigaciones: Un giro económico para Bolivia. Examinamos los orígenes de la crisis actual y proponemos una estrategia para restablecer la estabilidad macroeconómica y, al mismo tiempo, apoyar el crecimiento de largo plazo. El colapso macroeconómico de Bolivia es el síntoma más visible de una crisis más profunda tras un deterioro institucional que debilitó la inversión privada, la capacidad exportadora y el crecimiento de la productividad en toda la economía. En respuesta, presentamos un plan integral de reformas basado en cinco pilares: 1) una consolidación fiscal creíble y que impulse el crecimiento; 2) una red de compensación social eficaz y focalizada; 3) el restablecimiento del equilibrio externo y de la credibilidad monetaria; 4) una renovada capacidad de atracción de inversiones para sectores exportadores; y 5) una base institucional que fomente el desarrollo de nuevas capacidades productivas.