The Life Cycle of Ideas

In this Academic Research Seminar, Gaétan de Rassenfosse will discuss his paper “The Life Cycle of Ideas” co-authored by Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Luc Paluskiewicz and Raphael Wagon.

Whether attending in person or virtually, please register in advance.

Abstract: Scientific publications have grown rapidly for decades, but there is increasing concern that new ideas may be becoming harder to find. Opportunities may decline within established lines of research even as new lines continue to emerge. Here we show that the evolution of research topics in economics and chemistry, two disciplines with very different research costs, is consistent with this distinction. Using a machine-learning model, we classify more than three million papers published between 1950 and 2020 into topics and follow their development over time. In both disciplines, most topics gain prominence, peak, and then decline in their share of publications. Yet their absolute output continues to grow, while text-based indicators of novelty and influence show little deterioration in the decades following topic emergence. New, durable combinations of topics also appear at a broadly stable rate. These patterns suggest that the declining prominence of established topics can coexist with the continued expansion and renewal of scientific research. Such renewal may help sustain scientific activity even if opportunities within individual research lines diminish.

Speaker: Gaétan de Rassenfosse, Associate Professor and holds the Chair of Science, Technology, and Innovation Policy at EPFL in Lausanne, Switzerland.

Bio: Gaétan de Rassenfosse is Associate Professor and holds the Chair of Science, Technology, and Innovation Policy at EPFL in Lausanne, Switzerland. His research examines how intellectual property institutions and public policy shape innovation, with particular interests in the patent system, innovation measurement, and the links between science and technology. His publications span economics, management, law, and innovation studies, appearing in journals including the Journal of Industrial Economics, Strategic Management Journal, Southern California Law Review, Journal of Law and Economics, Research Policy, and Scientific Data. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the Université libre de Bruxelles and writes The Patentist, a newsletter connecting patent research with policy and practice.

The Growth Lab’s Research Seminar series is a weekly seminar that brings together researchers from across the academic spectrum who share an interest in growth and development.

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