Research Seminar: Structural Change in Export Activities: An Exploration Using Occupations Data

The Growth Lab Research Seminar series is a weekly seminar that brings together researchers from across the academic spectrum who share an interest in growth and development.

Speaker: Hagen Kruse, PhD candidate and Research affiliate of the Groningen Growth and Development Centre @University of Groningen

Abstract: Traditionally, comparative advantage in exporting is measured at the level of products or industries. However, with international production fragmentation, countries specialize in activities along the production chain rather than in particular products. This paper therefore explores changes in the structure of exports at the level of activities for a set of 53 countries. Activities are measured using new internationally harmonized statistics on labour income of 13 detailed occupation classes of workers in 35 industries. Income shares from engineering, management, and support services increase as countries grow richer. New specializations have a strong proximity to the initial export basket, especially for routine manual intensive activities in developing countries. Some countries appear to specialize more in new activities that are relatively unrelated to their initial specializations. This is found to be positively related to income growth.

About the Speaker: Hagen Kruse is a PhD candidate at the University of Groningen and research affiliate of the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GGDC). His research focuses on the role of international trade in shaping modern patterns of structural change in developing countries. His first chapter was recently published in the IMF Economic Review and featured in media outlets such as The Economist, Project Syndicate, or UNIDO’s Industrial Analytics Platform. Current projects of Hagen are financially supported by the World Bank Group and a CEPR STEG research grant.