Escaping from Hardship, Searching for Comfort: Climate Matching in Refugees’ Destination Choices

Abstract

Do refugees settle in destinations that are ecologically similar to their origins? We assess the relevance of “climate matching” theories of migration for Venezuelan refugees in South America. Leveraging social media data, we build and validate the first local bilateral matrix of Venezuelan flows across the region. We measure bilateral ecological similarities in terms of temperature, precipitation, elevation, and distance to the coastline. Performing Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood gravity models of migration, we show that Venezuelan flows are more likely between ecologically similar areas. Model predictions explain independent measurements of Venezuelans’ settlement choices at both bilateral and destination levels. 

Growth Lab Working Paper Series No.

237

Keywords

Refugees, Mass migration, Climate matching, Gravity migration models, Social media

JEL Classifications

F2, O15, R23