AI Meets Trade: Global Linkages and the Cross-country Distribution of the Gains from AI 

Abstract

This paper provides estimates of expected per capita real income gains from AI over the next decade in OECD and G20 economies. It relies on a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model to incorporate the role of international trade and considers different scenarios regarding AI adoption paths and AI capabilities. In our central scenario, AI-driven productivity gains vary widely across countries and are expected to raise per capita real income growth by 0.1–0.95 percentage points annually. The model’s dynamics reveal a key insight: while countries lagging in AI adoption can gain from cheaper, AI-intensive imports generated by global diffusion, maintaining competitiveness – especially in highly AI-exposed sectors – ultimately requires strong domestic AI adoption. As a further channel, the paper quantifies the welfare effects generated by international knowledge spillovers boosting AI adoption of countries with relatively lower AI adoption. 

Growth Lab Working Paper Series No.

272

Keywords

Artificial Intelligence, International trade, Productivity, Technology adoption

JEL codes

C6, E1, F1, O3, O4, O5. 

Also published

OECD Artificial Intelligence Papers Series